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Virginia Cavaliers #1 Seed 26-2 • 1st place, ACC

The Cavaliers excel at defense and ball handling, ranking in the top 20 in both categories. However, they struggle at offensive rebounding, where they rank in the bottom 50% of all teams.

Wagner Seahawks #16 Seed 21-8 • 1st place, Northeast

The Seahawks rank #11 in offensive rebounding, and also count shooting 3-pointers as a relative strength. However, they struggle at free throw shooting, where they rank in the bottom 50% of all teams.

Win Odds Model UVA WAGN
Decision Tree

Identifies data trends with predictive significance.

96% 4%
Power Ratings

Analyzes scoring margins and schedule strength.

99% 1%
Similar Games

Based on results of similar past matchups.

97% 3%
Simulation

Play-by-play computer simulation of game.

99% 1%
Seed Difference

Historical win odds for seed difference of 15.

100% 0%

Virginia Stats

Season Performance #1
Strength of Schedule #13
Away Games #1
Recent Games #1
Non-Conference Games #4
Points/Possession 1.084 (#54)
Effective FG % 53.0% (#87)
Turnover % 12.8% (#5)
Off Rebound % 25.3% (#222)
FTA per FGA 0.242 (#345)
Opp Points/Possession 0.845 (#2)
Opp Effective FG % 43.8% (#4)
Opp Turnover % 19.4% (#19)
Opp Off Rebound % 24.5% (#81)
Opp FTA per FGA 0.236 (#9)

Wagner Stats

Season Performance #147
Strength of Schedule #294
Away Games #168
Recent Games #108
Non-Conference Games #154
Points/Possession 1.042 (#122)
Effective FG % 51.2% (#162)
Turnover % 16.9% (#231)
Off Rebound % 33.8% (#11)
FTA per FGA 0.352 (#130)
Opp Points/Possession 0.970 (#58)
Opp Effective FG % 48.4% (#54)
Opp Turnover % 17.5% (#90)
Opp Off Rebound % 26.0% (#145)
Opp FTA per FGA 0.473 (#347)