NBA Odds Movement

Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 5 2-3-0 40.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 10 4-6-0 40.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 3 2-1-0 66.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 1 1-0-0 100.0%
Total 19 9-10-0 47.4%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 20 11-9-0 55.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 43 16-25-2 39.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 14 8-5-1 61.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 8 6-2-0 75.0%
Total 85 41-41-3 50.0%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 221 100-118-3 45.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 432 228-193-11 54.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 185 86-96-3 47.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 99 41-57-1 41.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 26 14-12-0 53.8%
Total 963 469-476-18 49.6%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 117 45-70-2 39.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 268 137-128-3 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 152 82-64-6 56.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 103 45-57-1 44.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 11 5-6-0 45.5%
Total 651 314-325-12 49.1%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 95 51-43-1 54.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 353 185-164-4 53.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 215 100-108-7 48.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 153 71-80-2 47.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 36 15-21-0 41.7%
Total 852 422-416-14 50.4%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 52 26-25-1 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 17 8-9-0 47.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 11 3-8-0 27.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 10 4-6-0 40.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 3 2-1-0 66.7%
Total 93 43-49-1 46.7%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 45 22-20-3 52.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 9 4-5-0 44.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 4 1-3-0 25.0%
Total 58 27-28-3 49.1%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.