NFL Odds Movement

Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1 1-0-0 100.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 12 7-5-0 58.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 4 4-0-0 100.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 8 4-3-1 57.1%
Total 25 16-8-1 66.7%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 26 14-11-1 56.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 22 11-11-0 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 22 9-13-0 40.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 8 4-4-0 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 3 3-0-0 100.0%
Total 81 41-39-1 51.2%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 42 18-23-1 43.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 143 80-60-3 57.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 42 18-22-2 45.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 27 13-14-0 48.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 5 1-3-1 25.0%
Total 259 130-122-7 51.6%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 45 26-18-1 59.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 155 64-82-9 43.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 50 24-25-1 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 17 9-8-0 52.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 10 3-7-0 30.0%
Total 277 126-140-11 47.4%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 15 8-6-1 57.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 118 55-59-4 48.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 64 33-31-0 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 51 20-31-0 39.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 13 4-9-0 30.8%
Total 261 120-136-5 46.9%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 30 11-17-2 39.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 58 23-33-2 41.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 31 16-14-1 53.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 4 2-2-0 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 0-2-0 0.0%
Total 125 52-68-5 43.3%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 10 4-6-0 40.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 14 3-10-1 23.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 6 4-2-0 66.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2 2-0-0 100.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 34 14-19-1 42.4%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.