NFL Odds Movement

We have opening and closing point spreads for 1063 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 499-533-31 and covered the spread 48.4% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
-7.5 1 1-0-0 100.0%
-4 2 2-0-0 100.0%
-3.5 13 6-6-1 50.0%
-3 10 7-3-0 70.0%
-2.5 27 19-8-0 70.4%
-2 54 22-31-1 41.5%
-1.5 57 23-31-3 42.6%
-1 72 41-31-0 56.9%
-0.5 130 66-60-4 52.4%
0 277 126-140-11 47.4%
0.5 140 69-68-3 50.4%
1 70 32-36-2 47.1%
1.5 51 19-32-0 37.3%
2 101 42-54-5 43.8%
2.5 24 10-14-0 41.7%
3 9 3-5-1 37.5%
3.5 7 3-4-0 42.9%
4 12 4-8-0 33.3%
4.5 2 1-1-0 50.0%
5 1 1-0-0 100.0%
5.5 2 2-0-0 100.0%
7 1 0-1-0 0.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.